From demand identification to route planning — a systematic assessment and implementation strategy for autonomous shuttles
Project Background
Qingpu, Taoyuan combines several conditions that make it a promising setting for an autonomous shuttle demonstration.
Taoyuan's smart-city initiatives identify Qingpu as a key development area, with established infrastructure and a newly planned urban setting.
Taoyuan HSR Station and the Airport MRT form a regional transport hub, while gaps remain in last-mile access.
Major destinations including IKEA, Xpark, Gloria Outlets and Cathay Landmark generate substantial travel demand.
Many new housing developments in Qingpu have recently been occupied. The study identifies population growth outpacing expansion of the bus network, increasing the need for last-mile connections.
Analysis Framework
Four steps address the central planning questions: why the service is needed, where it should operate, how to design it and how to implement it.
Methodology
Multiple open datasets and GIS techniques support a systematic assessment of autonomous shuttle feasibility.
| Data type | Source | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Bus stops | OpenStreetMap / Overpass API | 74 stops within the core area |
| Road network | OpenStreetMap | 15,744 road segments |
| POI Demand | OpenStreetMap Overpass API | 1,802 residential and employment POIs |
| Administrative village boundaries | OpenStreetMap(admin_level=9) | 13 villages |
| Airport MRT stations | OpenStreetMap | 3 stations |
| Country / organisation | Standard |
|---|---|
| United States FTA | 400m (1/4 mile) |
| United Kingdom CIHT | 400m |
| Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism | 300-500m |
| Taiwan Ministry of Transportation and Communications | 400m |
Sources: TCRP Report 165 (2013), FTA Circular 4702.1B (2012), UK CIHT Planning for Walking (2015), Japan Handbook on Urban Structure Assessment (2014)
Infrastructure Requirements
Autonomous buses require suitable road infrastructure. The following indicators and reference criteria guide the assessment.
The operational design domain (ODD) considers lane width, intersection complexity, speed limits and gradients. This study expresses these factors as suitability scores from 1 to 5 to screen potential corridors.
| Item | Minimum requirement | Reference standard |
|---|---|---|
| Lane width | ≥ 3.0m | AASHTO Green Book |
| Intersection type | ≤ 4 intersection arms; signal-controlled | EU INFRAMIX Project |
| Operating speed | 15 – 25 km/h | International autonomous-bus trial experience |
| Gradient | ≤ 10% | NACTO Urban Street Design Guide |
| Pavement quality | IRI < 4.0 m/km | FHWA pavement-condition indicators |
| Road-marking retroreflectivity | ≥ 100 mcd/m²/lux | FHWA MUTCD |
Key Findings
Quantified coverage and service gaps within the core study area.
The core area is a 2km-radius circle around Taoyuan HSR Station. The 400m buffers of 74 bus stops cover 77.9%. Of 344 cells in the 200m grid, 76 (22.1%) are uncovered. Gaps are concentrated in the northwestern, eastern and southern parts of the area.
POI-weighted demand analysis identifies residential communities and employment destinations within 4 gap clusters. Stop locations are shifted towards the weighted demand centres. Under the study's coverage assumptions, adding the stops reduces the gap share from 22.1% to 15.1%.
Figure: service gaps overlaid with POI demand
The 1,075 candidate roads in the core area receive ODD suitability scores from 1 to 5 based on road class, estimated width and speed conditions. Of these, 233 lie near service gaps and are considered as potential shuttle-route segments.
| Scoring item | Conditions associated with a higher score |
|---|---|
| Road classification | secondary, tertiary, residential |
| Width | ≥ 3.0 m (for safe autonomous-vehicle operation) |
| Speed limit | 15–50 km/h, a low-speed environment |
| Proximity to a gap | Within 200m of a service gap |
Figure: road suitability scores (red = low, yellow = medium, green = high)
Figure: proposed routes overlaid on candidate roads
Route Design
Three shuttle routes are designed around the 4 gap clusters and POI-weighted stop locations. Each starts and ends at the nearest rail station and connects proposed stops in the uncovered areas.
Service gap #1 — connect HSR commuters with northwestern residential communities, including Baolai Garden and Prague Spring.
Service gaps #2 and #3 — connect Linghang Station with eastern employment areas, including Dajiang Industrial Park and the 3M logistics center, and northern residential areas.
Service gap #4 — connect Taoyuan Sports Park Station with newer communities to the south and the Qingtangyuan recreation area. The compact route is suited to a low-demand neighborhood shuttle.
| Comparison item | A: Residential shuttle | B: Employment shuttle | C: Local amenities shuttle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Route length | 3.35 km | 7.49 km | 2.09 km |
| Terminal | Taoyuan HSR Station | Linghang Station | Taoyuan Sports Park Station |
| Service gap | #1 | #3, #2 | #4 |
| Primary demand | Commuting home | Commuting to work | Everyday travel |
| Service role | HSR commuter connection | Industrial-area shuttle | Community shuttle |
| Proposed implementation order | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 |
Figure: three proposed shuttle routes (red = A, blue = B, green = C)
Demand Validation
Residential and employment POIs are overlaid on each service gap to assess the demand supporting the proposed shuttle routes.
The historical OpenStreetMap Overpass query returned 1,802 POIs in the core area, classified into residential (1,418) and employment (384) categories. A POI-weighted location algorithm shifts proposed stops towards concentrations of demand, rather than simply using gap centroids.
| Stop | POIs within 800m | Displacement | Associated route |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 32 | 237m | A: Residential shuttle |
| #2 | 184 | 231m | B: Employment shuttle |
| #3 | 172 | 130m | B: Employment shuttle |
| #4 | 38 | 339m | C: Local amenities shuttle |
Note: stop locations combine 70% of the demand-weighted centre with 30% of the geometric gap centroid, targeting locations with both a coverage gap and demand. OSM POIs are incomplete; actual demand may be greater.
Figure: residential POI distribution (layers: service gaps + residential POIs)
Figure: employment POI distribution (layers: service gaps + employment POIs)
Expected Impact
With 4 proposed autonomous-shuttle stops, the modelled share of uncovered area decreases under the study's assumptions.
Figure: before / after coverage comparison (layer: gap improvement after proposed stops)
Interactive Map
An interactive analysis map with zoom and selectable layers for stops, buffers, gaps, road scores and proposed routes.
Implementation Roadmap
Moving from analysis to implementation requires coordination between organisations and phased delivery.
| Organisation | Role |
|---|---|
| Taoyuan Department of Transportation | Road-use approval and integration with the bus network |
| Ministry of Economic Affairs autonomous-vehicle programme office | Contact point for the regulatory sandbox application |
| Dayuan District Office / village offices | Local engagement and coordination with residents |
| Autonomous-vehicle suppliers, such as Qinwei | HD-map surveying and vehicle deployment |
| Railway authority / Taoyuan Metro | Connections and transfers at stations |
| Nearby commercial destinations, including Gloria Outlets and IKEA | Waiting-area provision and travel demand |
| Risk | Response strategy |
|---|---|
| Uncertain regulatory review timetable | Prepare application documents early and establish contact with the responsible authority |
| Concerns among local residents | Build trust through meetings with village leaders and trial rides |
| Road works affecting the routes | Provide alternative road segments and retain route flexibility |
| Differences between GIS analysis and site conditions | Include a field survey and validation phase |
The proposal prioritises Route A (3.35km) as the HSR-connected demonstration route, followed by B and the shorter 2.09km community route C after operational validation. Under the proposed-stop assumptions, the modelled service-gap share changes from 22.1% to 15.1%.
References
Academic literature, technical standards and data sources cited in this study.